Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.026383 1.204343 1.403959 1.644502 1.926610 2.247127 2.639172
2024-10-06 0.788886 1.037348 1.349185 1.769584 2.322230 3.025017 3.988544
2024-10-13 0.601477 0.857467 1.205402 1.713438 2.437804 3.435975 4.920695
2024-10-20 0.479022 0.729019 1.091439 1.655991 2.515768 3.780325 5.790203
2024-10-27 0.392705 0.632243 0.999322 1.603938 2.578596 4.095093 6.647616
2024-11-03 0.343599 0.581712 0.965169 1.629097 2.755274 4.598126 7.863687
2024-11-10 0.320850 0.568774 0.986572 1.743822 3.089660 5.396174 9.681025
2024-11-17 0.291947 0.539950 0.975740 1.799652 3.328426 6.062744 11.369066
2024-11-24 0.261244 0.502624 0.943629 1.810868 3.486011 6.603888 12.906481
2024-12-01 0.232066 0.463332 0.901594 1.795883 3.589729 7.055925 14.336735
2024-12-08 0.207992 0.430099 0.865839 1.786704 3.701217 7.534406 15.885082
2024-12-15 0.190128 0.406549 0.845408 1.804446 3.867748 8.141595 17.782799
2024-12-22 0.166804 0.368860 0.792407 1.749631 3.881055 8.449294 19.122543
2024-12-29 0.162173 0.370815 0.822851 1.879264 4.313550 9.711529 22.772767
2025-01-05 0.142917 0.337258 0.771635 1.819406 4.313201 10.023866 24.306879
2025-01-12 0.126174 0.306920 0.723200 1.758368 4.300165 10.303873 25.806870
2025-01-19 0.111985 0.280498 0.679993 1.703072 4.291977 10.592774 27.373055
2025-01-26 0.104428 0.269166 0.670913 1.729798 4.489467 11.405640 30.390527
2025-02-02 0.102782 0.272479 0.697981 1.851669 4.946856 12.930843 35.509494
2025-02-09 0.097831 0.266474 0.700801 1.910978 5.249737 14.104876 39.877420
2025-02-16 0.091043 0.254554 0.686685 1.922894 5.426843 14.973312 43.541380
2025-02-23 0.083720 0.240070 0.663726 1.906975 5.524176 15.638942 46.733803
2025-03-02 0.077370 0.227401 0.643968 1.897224 5.637828 16.366992 50.230713